For years, the NBA Rookie of the Year award has been a benchmark for future stardom in the league. Typically, it acknowledges the most productive rookie scorer of the season, with scoring leaders frequently taking home the trophy. In fact, half of the last 10 winners were atop the scoring charts among their rookie peers. Moreover, the award often goes to top draft picks; half of the past 16 recipients were No. 1 overall selections. Ventures outside the top five picks have been rare but notable, including players like Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon.
This year, the landscape of the Rookie of the Year race is starkly different. The 2024 draft class is considered one of the least promising in NBA history. The top two picks are seen as projects and neither is a guard, a position that typically garners more attention for the award. The highest-picked guard this season is Reed Sheppard, who faces stiff competition in Houston's backcourt. As one source put it, "They badly need his shooting."
Rookie Challenges
Stephon Castle, selected by the Washington Wizards, might find his candidacy hampered by his 26.7% shooting on 3s at UConn. Similarly, Ron Holland, who entered the NBA from the G-League, struggled with his 3-point percentage, hitting only 23.9% of his attempts. Alex Sarr's shooting woes continued into the Summer League where he shot a discouraging 19.1% from the floor. These shooting struggles have put immense pressure on these rookies to improve rapidly if they intend to make a significant impact.
Inconvenient Situations
Their chances are also influenced by their teams' existing rosters. Zach Edey, drafted by the Memphis Grizzlies, is relatively certain to start and is expected to model his game after Jonas Valanciunas. The Timberwolves' selection of Rob Dillingham aims to groom him as a future replacement for veteran Mike Conley. Meanwhile, Portland's Donovan Clingan finds himself behind seasoned big men Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III, hampering his opportunities for significant playtime.
Navigating Through Depth Charts
Further complicating matters are players stuck behind established pros. Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are already competing at forward positions, and will now share time with rookie Zaccharie Risacher. Isaiah Collier, another hopeful, is blocked by Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, making his path to ample playing time turbulent. Dalton Knecht also faces limited opportunities on the Lakers, as he contends with Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell, both key players in the team's rotation.
Dark Horse Candidates
Despite these challenges, some rookies managed to receive recognition in previous seasons. Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr., for instance, garnered votes outside of the lottery last season. However, they did not seriously contend for the top rookie honor, illustrating just how challenging it is to break through in the NBA. Nonetheless, the narratives each rookie weaves throughout the season will determine their fate in the Rookie of the Year race. With the right combination of opportunity and performance, even those initially overlooked or hampered by poor shooting percentages can ascend to stardom.
Overall, the atypical tone of this season's rookie class, combined with existing depth charts and shooting struggles, paints a very uncertain picture for aspiring stars. It will be fascinating to see if any of these young talents can defy the odds and make their mark. Just as past winners have emerged from unexpected positions, there may yet be a rising star among this year’s rookies.